I’m really getting worried that Spurs may go down this year…or, if not, it’s going to be a real nail-biter and it’s going to go down to the wire. If you take the average number of points that it took to avoid relegation over the past 7 seasons, the magic number has been 37.
After 21 of 38 games, Spurs have 20 points. If you project our current points per game through the end of the season, that means we'll end up with 36 points. Also, if you look at our remaining games we have some very difficult opponents at the end of the season. Our last 10 matches we will play Villa, Chelsea, United, Everton, and end with Liverpool. Additionally, Newcastle (our bogey team) and some difficult away games round out that list.
If the results go the same way as they did in the first half of the season against our remaining teams, we’ll end up with 18 more points for a total of 38. If I project what I think will happen in our remaining 17 games, I come up with 38 points too.
What does this all mean? We’re officially in a relegation fight and we really have no margin for error. Unless we perform better then expected (or as the past has proven), we could very easily get relegated. It’s time to push the panic button.